Over the past 6 weeks, USD/JPY has had a tremendous run. On Feb 1, it was trading at 76 and today, it rose above 83.50. This 7.5 yen move impressed everyone, particularly given the lack of meaningful correction. But the burning question in everyone’s minds is how much further can USD/JPY rise. A [...]

Continue reading...

RBA meeting coming up. Here’s a table on how the Australian economy performed since the last monetary policy meeting in Feb. As you can see, there has been as much improvement as disappointment but the pullback in manufacturing and service sector activity is particularly worrisome. Market is pricing in 50bp of [...]

Continue reading...

I was on the Business News Network this afternoon talking about USD/JPY,CAD and Iceland’s plans to adopt the CAD. Sorry for looking so tired - its been one of those weeks! Click on the image to access the video:

Continue reading...

Last week, I was all over the weekly cloud cover break in USD/JPY (see chart one), talking about how important it is and why further gains are likely. It is a new month now and we have another important technical break on the monthly chart (see chart 2). USD/JPY closed above its 20-month SMA. [...]

Continue reading...

Since this week’s LTRO operation, the EUR/USD has fallen 3 straight trading days by as much 280 pips. Based on this price action, it looks like the pair is on its way to “mirroring” the post December LTRO move. It wouldn’t take much for this to occur - all the EUR/USD needs to do [...]

Continue reading...