By Jerry Furst - Sr Analyst “1st on Forex”
US Economy Going and Growing Up Fast? - Not So… Fast!
The Consensus Range for Friday’s US GDP is -2.8 to 0.7, with a consensus number of -0.7% growth . This is highly optimistic since last month’s GDP number came in at a negative -5.5%. The “rose colored glasses and windows” crowd would love to claim the worst is over.
Jobs is the Answer
The reality is that the jobless rate is still ugly and new jobless claims are still rising. Anecdotal talk of extended benefits being pulled back may soon paint a inaccurate picture that the jobless rate could be artificially made to look better - sooner – as continuing unemployment claims will be dropping soon as benefits expire and people fall off the unemployment benefits list as “no longer seeking employment”.
S&P 500 test of 1,000 Imminent ? and then Lookout Below?
The S&P 500 is flirting with 1,000 – A significant psychological support – resistance level.
My previous post of July 16th showed the S&P 500 grinding towards the 956 neckline of a massive Inverse Head and Shoulder Pattern going back to January, and the Failed Head and Shoulder of the past few months. That target was quickly achieved a few days later and promptly blasted up targeting the 1,000 mark.
S&P 500 4 Hour Chart (click to Enlarge)
This may indeed have been a significant short squeeze. If this 1,000 level is not significantly breached to the upside, then the weaker short positions that were just squeezed may have been removed – possibly clearing the way for a massive move down?
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