23

Dec

Holiday Season - A Good Time To Prepare for 2009

Posted by Jerry Furst  Published in Because You Asked, FX, Fundamental Analysis, business plan, currencies, trading, trading plan

Good Time To  Work On Your Trading and Business Plan

This market - and season is quite unique. During my webinar today I suggested that traders consider taking the Holiday Season off - away from trading - and concentrate on reflecting on this past years trading and amazing market dynamics. It is also a great time to work on a true business and trading plan for next year.

Survey Yourself

A good way to start is with the free survey - go to the link: http://tinyurl.com/a56tex

Q: RE: Volatility During Holiday Season

A question-comment to previous blog post yesterday asks if the holiday season can result in a thin market and cause a range bound market regardless of fundamental news events. My Reply:

Currency Markets Know No Holidays! One of my favorite sayings is that the Currency Markets Know No Holidays! Being a global market, some cultures do not celebrate others - and as long as a bank is open somewhere currencies can trade - it all boils down to access through your broker.

“It’s Different This Time” 

Having said that - another point you raise is that my past experience of holiday seasons gives me a level of expectation - but this market and holiday season is not the same as last year, and next year will be different still.  You need to always evaluate each season and circumstance individually. It’s the one time that “It’s Different This Time” is really true! 

 Regarding the implications of news releases and volatility during the holiday season, although it is anticipated that there will be thin volume - there is actually a potential for wider swings - especially if there is surprising news “scheduled or non-scheduled” it will most likely affect the markets with more of a wild swing. - bringing me to my initial point - Enjoy the Holiday Season and reflect on what you learned in 2008 and what you will plan to do in 2009.

Cheers - and Happy Holidays!

 The Week Ahead Calendar and Webinar - Click Here

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

 

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16

Dec

FOMC and Treasury: Help is Here - On The Way – Standing By

Posted by Jerry Furst  Published in Bernanke, DOW, FX, Forex, MBS, Paulson, Technical Analysis, USD-CAD, Uncategorized, charting, currencies, fomc, gold, interest rates, mortgage backed securities, trading
By Jerry Furst- Sr Analyst “1st on Forex”
at Investors Education Network.com

Historic FOMC Decision - and Annoucement - US Dollar Down Against the Majors

  

Above - the USD-CAD 4 Hour Chart (click to enlarge) shows continuing weakness. Supporting Trend lines posted yesterday held quite well under the strain of the FOMC Announcement

 

Attendees of my webinar were treated to a nice display of volatility and fundamentals

 

Thoughts from today’s FOMC announcement and observations to ponder

 

Unusual Delay and Accompanying Text

Traders used to receiving FOMC announcements promptly at 2:15 on the dot were treated to a slight delay waiting until 2:21 for the much anticipated announcement – and the accompanying text – which proved to be worth the wait!

 

Not wanting to be left out of the spotlight - Treasury Secretary Paulson was interviewed by Maria after the bell on CNBC and carefully stammered through his responses stated, “I am expecting no “major” institutional failure in the future. “

 

I have a new respect for Hank as the printed statement is quite nebulous but sounded great! He has come far as a politician and public statesman!

 

The Fed said – It would be a buyer of Mortgage Backed Securities

 

Gold responded by edging up over $850

 

DOW Rallied Over 400 points - closing up 370

 

Trichet stated earlier in the day that they do not need to keep pace with other central banks.

 

The Fed stated that it “will employ all available tools” – to return to “the normal functioning” of the markets.  they will buy mortgages and perhaps even more speculating consumer finance.

 

 

The “1st on Forex”  Week Ahead Condensed Economic Calendar-  Click Here

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

 

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9

Dec

Currency Consolidation - Continuation - Reversal Patterns

Posted by Jerry Furst  Published in Aussie, Canadian, Dollar, Euro, FX, Loonie, Technical Analysis, chart patterns, currencies, swiss, trading, trend channel, triangle
By Jerry Furst- Sr Analyst “1st on Forex”
at Investors Education Network.com

Dec 9, 2008 - Pause Before The Storm?

“Show and Tell” on Chart Patterns

Lot’s of Chart Patterns are Currently Forming on the Currencies - A brief discussion and then a look at some good examples of Triangle Patterns all setting up at the same time on different time frames.  

Furst -  let me give you my “two Ameros” on chart patterns. I consider them all to be “consolidation patterns” and have no bias that - for example,  an “ascending triangle”  is a “bullish pattern” - to me,  it could go in any direction. What I look for is the strength of a well formed pattern.

Is it well formed? 

If I can show people a chart and everyone quickly recognizes a Head and Shoulder Pattern, that’s a strong signal. If there is lot’s of debate - then it’s weak.  Chart Pattern recognition gets fun when you see a pattern forming at the right edge, but not yet completed. Aggressive traders can take a position that the pattern will first form - and then if it does, prepare for the potential price targets.

Don’t Get Bogged Down In Statistics

I debate the statistics some apply to chart patterns. For example: Maybe someone tested 1085 head and shoulder patterns and determined that  83.7% have a probability of completion in a certain circumstance.  So what! The 16.3% chance is just another “50-50″ coin flip if you are only looking at statistics. Well - let’s just say that I can disprove anything with statistics..

US Dollar - Canadian - Dec 9, 2008 - 4 Hour Chart

USD-CADVery Strong Triangle Pattern forming on the Dollar - Loonie. Note the multiple areas where the upward trend Channel has held - and the Resistance forming a classic Triple Top. (click to enlarge)

Euro - US Dollar Daily Chart - Dec 9, 2008

EUR-USD: No Shortage of Chart Patterns Here as we have a pretty good triangle pattern, with a consolidation zone inside. Note the Upward Trend Channel that will be brought into focus on a 30 Min chart Below

EUR-USD: 30 Minute Chart of EUR-USD Shows the Upward Trend Channel and Resistance Levels  (Click to enlarge)

US Dollar - Swiss

USD-CHF: 2 Hour Chart Dec 9, 2008 - Nice Triangle to complement the Euro-USD Pattern (Click to enlarge)

Aussie - US Dollar - Dec 9, 2008 4 Hour Chart

AUD-USD - 4 Hour Chart - Yet Another Triangle! - (Click to enlarge)

 

The Week Ahead - Calendar and Webinars

 Summarized Scheduled Economic Calendar - Click Here

***  Attend A Free Live Market Coverage and Technical Analysis Webinar ***

Click Here to Register for this weeks “1st on Forex” The Week Ahead Webinar  - Every Monday at 12 Noon EDT -

FOMC Live Webinar Tue December 16  - Click Here to Register

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

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7

Dec

The Week Ahead - Let’s Get Technical!

Posted by Jerry Furst  Published in Dollar, Euro, FX, Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking, Technical Analysis, currencies, swiss, trading
By Jerry Furst - Sr Analyst “1st on Forex”
at Investors Education Network.com

What Now!

Last week I went fundamental - and with good reason. There was more news than I could keep up with - scheduled or otherwise. This week I will stick to the charts - unless if we get some major fundamental issue - like Charlie Gasparino deciding to drive some poor equity into the ground. Bottom line - be ready for anything in this enviornment!

Euro in The Box - Nice Consolidation Zone

Dollar Swiss Continues in Uptrending Channel

Usually the USD-CHF is a Mirror Image of the USD-CHF, however the status quo seems to be in question as the continued Dollar strength against the Swiss is not dargging the Euro down - for now…

The Week Ahead Calendar and Webinar - Click Here

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

 

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