I read this fascinating study by Barclays Bank this morning on how the performance of the Dow in the month of January can set the tone for trading throughout the year. In the first month of 2009, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 12 percent. According to Barclay’s study, if there is negative [...]

By Jerry Furst- Sr Analyst “1st on Forex”

at Investors Education Network.com

Historic FOMC Decision - and Annoucement - US Dollar Down Against the Majors

  

Above - the USD-CAD 4 Hour Chart (click to enlarge) shows continuing weakness. Supporting Trend lines posted yesterday held quite well under the strain of the FOMC Announcement

 

Attendees of my webinar were treated to a nice display of volatility and fundamentals

 

Thoughts from today’s FOMC announcement and observations to ponder

 

Unusual Delay and Accompanying Text

Traders used to receiving FOMC announcements promptly at 2:15 on the dot were treated to a slight delay waiting until 2:21 for the much anticipated announcement – and the accompanying text – which proved to be worth the wait!

 

Not wanting to be left out of the spotlight - Treasury Secretary Paulson was interviewed by Maria after the bell on CNBC and carefully stammered through his responses stated, “I am expecting no “major” institutional failure in the future. “

 

I have a new respect for Hank as the printed statement is quite nebulous but sounded great! He has come far as a politician and public statesman!

 

The Fed said – It would be a buyer of Mortgage Backed Securities

 

Gold responded by edging up over $850

 

DOW Rallied Over 400 points - closing up 370

 

Trichet stated earlier in the day that they do not need to keep pace with other central banks.

 

The Fed stated that it “will employ all available tools” – to return to “the normal functioning” of the markets.  they will buy mortgages and perhaps even more speculating consumer finance.

 

 

The “1st on Forex”  Week Ahead Condensed Economic Calendar-  Click Here

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

 

Mid Week Report

by Jerry Furst Sr. Analyst

Investors Education Network.com  

  On Monday the NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research) “determined that the decline in economic activity met the standard for a recession” and that it started in December of 2007. I find it audacious that pundits on TV now make statements like “We all knew it was a recession” - When in fact the media was trying it’s best to keep the rose colored glasses on. Back on Jan 22 my blog post was titled, “Recession in Play – Depression on the Way?”

  Also on Monday – Ben Bernanke warned that, “it’s certainly feasible” to cut rates further – thus giving the other central bankers a heads up to act accordingly. The Thanksgiving Day stock market shoppers were treated to a deep discount as the DOW plunged 679 points or -7.7%! 

 Tuesday – The markets took a breather – there was not much news and it appeared as if people were waiting for Wednesday’s data. The US “Big 3” automakers were reported to have their CEO’s driving to Washington,  and the UAW is under pressure to renegotiate it’s 2007 concessions.

 Wednesday – The EU reported poor retail sales and the UK and EU both posted dismal numbers for Services PMI – dropping the Euro around 100 pips and the Pound over 200 pips before the NY session.

 The US then got in the game and posted horrible Non-Mfg ISM numbers and the ADP jobless claims came in at -250,000 where expectations were for -200,000. The Feds Beige Book came in negative as well.

 As of this writing New Zealand is expected to cut rates from 6.5 to 5% at 3pm Eastern time.

 Thursday – Interest Rate and Trichet Watch

Which leads us to the home stretch – as the UK is expected to cut rates from 3 to 2% and the Euro Zone is expected to drop rates from 3.25% to 2.75%. These are big and historic drops in size and in the rate itself. Jean Claude Trichet is scheduled to have his press conference at 8:30 am EDT in which he usually gives some clarity as to where he sees things are – and what the ECB may or may not do in the near term.

 Friday – All eyes are waiting on the Non-Farm payroll report – but will the unemployment rate really be a surprise? Will their be revisions?

 Stay Tuned… 

 

 The Week Ahead Calendar and Webinar - Click Here

 

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

To see my Jan 22 – Blog Post “Recession in Play – Depression on the Way? “

http://blogs.fxstreet.com/1stonforex/2008/01/22/recession-in-play-depression-on-the-way/